Is the Challenger to Social Networking already on the Ascendancy?

Google's success came to the company in two distinct phases. The first phase occurred in the 90's at a time when the Internet was first setting off as a global network and people were coming to grips with an understanding of how essential an effective search engine actually was to making the Internet actually useful. Google's superior search algorithms cemented its place at the very core of the Internet in a way that hasn't been diminished by two decades of competition. The second phase came the following decade when Google hit upon a stable way to monetize its search operations; that way rocketed it to stratospheric Internet superstardom and kept it there.

Facebook appears now to be tracing this same trajectory. Seen by sheer page view count, Facebook is the number two website in the world right behind Google; seen by unique user visits or other significant counts, Facebook with its nearly half billion users appears behind only two or three other websites like Google and Microsoft. In five years, Facebook will probably be number one in the world on every count.

As much as new startups and companies try to dislodge the dominant technology phenomenon of a decade, it usually doesn't seem to happen when all that the others try is the same business idea of the original. Microsoft led the technology world of the last 20 years with its operating system technology; that was only dislodged when Google came out with an all-new paradigm, using the cloud to compute. It would appear that the cycle has shortened the time, with Facebook challenging Google as the dominant paradigm of the next generation already. Facebook's Open Graph system of all people and all entities revolving as satellites around Facebook is beginning to fall into place now; it would need a whole new revolution in the way technology is progressing to dislodge Facebook.

But could the cycle be shortening further still this time? It looks like the next revolution is on its way already - and mobile apps could be it. The mobile Internet experience is nothing like the regular Internet. Our experience doesn't all happen through one unified browser - everything occurs on a hundred different apps on different smart phones and other Internet appliances. In such a world, Facebook's penetration would greatly suffer; it all depends on whether the mobile Internet is going to come to be experienced on a unified browser such as we have on the computer or whether it will be on the fragmented scale that apps work on that no one power like Facebook will be allowed a grasp over. When power will come to be distributed among thousands of small-scale players whose reach goes no farther than the single short-lived app. they design, the age of a single dominant player may cease altogether.

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